Week 2 Gambling run down
Thursday:
Bills +120 at Dolphins -2.5 O/U 48.5
Primetime unders are the best bet in football, no idea if that’s actually true but they cash 58% of the time, so add that to the card. Underdogs in primetime also cover about 56% of the time, and we’re going to bet the Bills and the points as it seems like Miami might have a weird week ahead with all the fallout of Tyreek Hill’s arrest. I can’t decide if I am going to buy the hook here or just bet them straight up but I hate betting +2.5.
Sunday:
Steelers -2.5 Broncos +120 O/U 36.5
I am all over my beloved Broncos in this spot as a home dog. Denver covers 60% of the time at home in the month of September, which sounds like one of those weird stats where someone has too many cross tabs open in an excel sheet, but the altitude + the heat gives the Broncos a real advantage (forecast is for 86% on Sunday). We also love dogs with a low total. Dogs in a game with a total under 42 cover 57% of the time. And we love the under here as Bo Nix (who definitely doesn’t suck, I am not worried about this at all) is still getting his feet under him and Pitt only scored 18pts in a dome last week. And we’re getting a touch of value at 36.5 coming in just under the key number of 37
Raiders +360 at Ravens -9 O/u 41.5
This screams teaser leg to me. Get that down to Ravens -2.5 and take out any back door cover potential. Ravens lead the league in covering after a loss at almost 70% since 2020, and feels like we’re getting a couple points compared to if Likely wore slightly smaller shoes.
Cle +145 at Jax -3 O/U 41.5
According to NFL Consensus 88% of the bets as of this writing are on Cleveland while 93% of the money is on Jax. Maybe people are just so excited to bet on Jameis instead of Massage Boy that they’re jumping on the Browns. I am going to swim with the whales though.
Jets -3.5 at Titans + 155 O/U 40.5
If Vrabel was still coaching this is an auto bet. Since 2020 Titans were covering as a dog at 55% and as a home dog at almost 70%. This screams stay away to me, home dog with a low total would suggest Titans but I can’t bring myself to bet on Mr. Mayo.
49ers -6 at Vikings +220 O/U 46.5
I like the 49ers here on either a tease or ML parlay. I don’t love betting against a home dog with a rest advantage, but with the Vikings coming off a whomping I think they’re probably getting a little too much respect. And as a favorite since 2019 the 49ers win outright 65% of the time. I would imagine things would only get smoother after Aiyuk and Richardson practice this week. This is also a whale play with 83% of the money but only 20% of the bets on the 9ers.
Chargers -6 at Panthers +220 O/U 39.5
Ok, all the stats say bet the Panthers here. They’re home dogs, with a low total coming off a whomping of 20+ points (dogs who got blown out cover the next week cover 56% of the time), against a west coast team playing on the east coast in the early window. But I just can’t do it. The Panthers made a big ole poopy in their pants last week, but if you can plug your nose and pick them, all the stats are on your side.
Seahawks -3.5 at Patriots +160 O/U 37.5.
I kind of think both these teams are overrated this week. The Seahawks barely beat my beloved but admittedly potentially stupid Broncos despite Bo Nix (who is definitely good) having only 138 yards and two interceptions. Meanwhile the Pats barely beat the notoriously slow starting Bengals in Burrow’s first start since he got hurt mid-season last year. Not to mention that Ja’Marr Chase didn’t practice all pre-season, and the Bengals lost a fumble at the .1 yard line. The trends say to back the home dog with a low total against a west coast team playing on the east coast in the early window. But the whales like Seattle with 90% of the money and only 15% of the bets. I am holding onto my priors that the Patriots are an abomination and got lucky against the Bengals last week.
Saints +230 at Cowboys -6.5 O/U 46.5
Since 2020 the Saints are only covering 40% of the time after a win, while Dallas is covering as a favorite 60% of the time, 3rd in the league. Let’s go Boys.
Giants +105 at Commanders -1.5 O/U 44.5
*In the most Chris Collingsworth voice of all time* “Throw out the record book when these two teams play each other, Mike. These guys just don’t like each other!” Underdogs cover about 60% of the time in divisional match-ups. That combined with the overreaction line swing of a team getting whomped, I am taking the G-men against a rookie QB in only his second start.
Buccaneers +290 at Lions -7.5 O/U 51.5
Since 2020 the Lions lead the league ATS at a favorite at 17-9. They’re second in the league against the spread as a home team, and lead the league ATS after a win. The whales also like Detroit with 70% of the money compated to 12% of the bets. This might be the easiest pick of the week, so you should probably go the other way and take the Bucs who, to their credit, are 9-4 as a dog since adding Baker. Or you could add Detroit to a teaser/parlay with the 9ers and Ravens.
Colts-3 at GB +130 OU/ 40.5
We’ve got another game where if you can hold your nose the stats are going to be on your side. GB as a home dog since 2019 is 5-1, plus we like dogs with a low total and a rest advantage. On the other hand Malik Willis has only been a Packer since August 27th. This line swung 8 point after Jordon Love’s injury so maybe there’s some value there. On the other hand, Malik Willis.
Rams +100 at Cardinals -1 O/U 48.5
Everything is coming up Rams here. The Rams have only lost to the Cardinals straight up twice since 2017, divisional under dogs cover about 60% of the time, Rams off a loss are covering 62% of the time, and the Cardinals as a favorite are second to last in the league ATS since 2020.
Bengals +195 at Chiefs -5 O/U 47.5
I talked about how the Bengals might have gotten their worst game of the year out of the way last week. This argument is bolstered by being ranked on The Action Network as the 24th luckiest team in week one, compared to KC who was ranked second. If you can stomach feeling like a stupid person for betting against Patrick Mahomes then buy low on the Bengals and Joe Burrow who is 17-8 ATS as a dog. Cincy is also leading the league since 2019 with a rest disadvantage at 78% ATS. I am, however, gonna take Chiefs as are the whales with 87% of the money on 13% of the bets.
Bears +220 at Houston -6 O/U 45.5
Not a ton of trends to fall back on here, other than primetime unders and prime time dogs hitting at 58% and 56%. That being said the whales are on the Texans with over 90% of the money and only 13% of the bets. I think this is a stay away but if you want some action other than the under on Sunday Night, favorites lead after the first quarter about 64% of the time when you take out pushes, and 65% at half time after pushes with 55% ATS at half.
Monday:
Falcons +240 at Eagles -6.5 O/U 47.5
We all know about Kirk Cousins record in primetime (12-20) straight up, and he did not look healthy last week with the Falcons using Pistol and Shotgun 96% of the time. Philly on the other hand is 4th in the league since 2019 as a home favorite, and has won their last 2 games against Kirk Cousins. I am swimming with the whales again here and picking the Eagles and, of course, the primetime under.