THURSDAY NIGHT
PIT-3.5 at CLE +160 O/U 36.5
I think this is the ultimate slip up spot for the Steelers after coming off a hard fought, physical win against the Ravens. It helps that Russ has been only 8-16 ATS in his last 24 night games and AFC North dogs have been covering at 60% since 2018.
DEN -6 at LV +225 O/U 41.5
We LOVE my Broncos this week. Sean Payton loves running up the score against bad teams, and the Raiders certainly qualify as a bad team at 2-8 having lost their last 6- a stretch that includes losses of 16 to Denver, 19 to Pitt, 17 to the Bengals, and 15 last week to Miami. The Broncos on the other hand have won by multiple scores each 3 times in the last 5 weeks.
TB -6 at NYG +230 O/U 41.5
Weird spot here with both teams coming off byes. When this is the case, the under hits at 66% so give me that. As far as a side, I think the benching of Daniel Jones makes this a stay away. It sure seems like TB should win big, especially with them likely adding Mike Evans back into the mix. I just don’t know what we’re going to get out the Italian stallion Tommy DeVito who, you know, did stuff last year.
KC -10.5 at CAR +425 O/U 45.5
I think KC lays the smack down on the Panthers after losing last week. This is a get right spot for Patrick Mahomes and the defense. Favorites of 10+ are 5-0 ATS this season and I think this continues as the Panthers are overmatched in every phase.
WAS -10 at DAL +425 O/U 45.5
Even though Washington has a massive rest advantage, massive DVOA advantage, and Cooper Rush has been historically bad in the last two weeks, I can’t quite get to the point where I am laying double digies on the commanders. I am worried about Jayden’s ribs and I’m worried about Kliff Kingsbury’s struggles in the second half of seasons. No bet!
NE +290 at MIA -7.5 O/U 46.5
Here’s a stat that feels impossible, Miami is 8-0 ATS against the Pats in their last 8 and I think that trend is going to continue. Miami is low key playing some good ball since getting Tua back. They’ve won their last 2 games and the two before that were close losses to Buffalo and Arizona. From a historical perspective, Tua has done well as a big favorite at 11-4 ATS when favored by more than 6. It also looks like it’s going to be warm in Miami which should favor the Dolphins.
TEN+320 at HOU-7.5 O/U40.5
Tennessee is 1-9 ATS this year, and they’ve missed covering by an average of 5.5 points. That’s rough. I don’t really think Houston is an awesome squad and if they don’t cover this week they’ll officially go on my “sick of their shit” list. I am reluctantly taking the Texans at home here.
DET -7 at IND +270 O/U 49.5
The Lions are 8-2 ATS this year, covering by an average of 10.5 points, and ranked number 1 in the league in DVOA. This team doesn’t seem to have let down weeks and I am backing them again. Fading the Colts here makes me nervous though. Richardson is coming off his best game of the year, Indy also has a phenomenal record ATS this year, and backing the Lions is the most public play on the board. I just think the Lions are a buzzsaw.
MIN -3.5 at CHI +160 O/U 39.5
I like Chicago as a home dog. They played way better offensively last week after getting a couple offensive linemen back and firing Shane Waldron. It just seemed to get way more dudes running in space. Plus, the Bears are actually 4-1 ATS in their last 5 divisional games.
SF+120 at GB-2.5 O/U47.5
First of all, I am all over the under here. There is currently a snowstorm in Wisconsin and 47.5 is a big number if it’s going to be chilly and/or snowy. Second of all, I don’t love either side of this game. Both teams are 4-6 ATS this year and have played some disappointing games relative to their pre-season hype. I am defaulting to the Action Network’s luck rankings which shows that the Pack has gotten significantly more bounces this year and that should regress in SF’s direction.
AZ -1 at SEA -110 O/U47.5
I think Arizona is for real. They’ve rattled off 4 wins in a row and are 7-3 ATS on the year. Meanwhile Seattle is only 3-6-1 ATS this year and is 1-5 ATS at home this year and 8-15 ATS at home since 2022.
SUNDAY NIGHT
PHI-3 at LAR +135 O/U 48.5
Despite a mediocre start Philly has shot all the way up to 7th in the league in DVOA and since getting both of their WRs back have been on a roll, winning their last 5 games and putting up at least 26 each of those weeks. Additionally, the Eagle defense is starting to gel under Vic Fangio and have one of the best defenses in the league since week 5. The Rams have also looked better since getting all their pieces back but have struggled to defend the run. So I am taking Philly and some rushing props for Saquon.
MONDAY NIGHT
BAL-3 at LAC +130
I love Baltimore to bounce back here after a loss. Lamar is 25-6 ATS in his career as a dog or favored by 3 or less. Meanwhile the Chargers inability to put last week’s game away in the 4th quarter is concerning, and it’s a trend for LA. Herbert is only 32% ATS in the second halves of games. I don’t think you can mess around like that against a Baltimore team that is ranked 2nd in the league in DVOA.