THURSDAY NIGHT
WAS +175 at PHI -4 O/U 49.5
Home teams have historically not been good on Thursday nights, they are only 38-49 ATS since 2019, and we are riding that trend this week. These two teams are basically even in DVOA so we’re taking Washington and the points and hoping they get a couple bounces and they are only 22nd in the league in Luck compared to the Eagles who are 7th.
SUNDAY
ATL+110 at DEN -2
I LOVE the Broncos here. Denver has been one of the best teams in the league at generating pressure on the QB and Kirk Cousins isn’t exactly Mike Vick in the back field. I see us sacking him/getting him off schedule a bunch this week. On the other side of the ball, Atlanta doesn’t generate pressure well and when he has time Bo Nix has been very good for a rookie.
BAL -3 at PIT +150 O/U 48.5
We have some pretty strong historical trends in this match-up. Underdogs in this match-up are 28-10-3 ATS and when the spread is over 3 that goes up to 22-4-3 ATS. Pittsburgh is one of the best teams in the league in divisional match-ups covering NFC North games at 63%. All of this has me on Pittsburgh as a road dog.
JAX +700 at DET -14 O/U46.5
This is the ultimate stay away. On one hand, the Jags players get paid to play football too, on the other hand Mac Jones is starting. No bet!
LAR -5 at NE +180 O/U 43.5
I think that this is a great get right spot for Rams as they try to bounce back after losing to Miami on Monday night. Stay with my here, but teams that lose as home favorites and then become road favorites the following week are 29-15-2 ATS since 2020. There is also no one better on short rest than Sean McVey 14-6 ATS on a short week and has covered his last 5 in that spot.
CLE -110 at NO-1 O/U 44.5
Have fun betting this one. New Orleans may have won last week with a new head coach but this is still a team that seems like it might hate their QB based some tweets from former players. The Browns, for their part, haven’t really been lighting it up as they are only ranked 31 in DVOA. If I had to pick a side I would take Cleveland off a bye as it seems like the sharps are on that side with 57% of the money on only 30% of the bets coming in on that side.
IND +165 at NYJ-4 O/U43.5
I don’t know how you can back the Jets as a favorite anymore. Since firing and Salah they are 1-4 ATS and their defense has plummeted ranking 29th or worse in a bunch of advanced stats. The Colts can at least tell themselves that they have a shot at the playoffs and those general vibes are enough to have me on the Colts.
MIN -6 at TEN +215
I am all over Minnesota here. Even though the Vikings have looked mediocre since their 5-0 start, they’re still ranked 4th in DVOA while the Titans are ranked 29th. I love the mismatch here between the Vikings defense who has given up 20 total points in the last two weeks against Will Levis who is 4-11 ATS as a starter. I think this is a get right spot for Minnesota as they look to stay in touch with Detroit for the NFC North.
LV +270 at MIA -7 O/U 43.5
I like Miami here as Vegas in in the top 3 in the league in the 1, 2, 3 Cancun! rankings. Pierce is almost certainly getting fired after the year, they are flip flopping which QB starts each week and they’ve lost 5 in a row- many of which were not close. Miami is kind of the polar opposite, they are trending in the right direction since getting Tua back and even though they’re 1-3 in their last 4, 3 of those were one score games and then they beat the Rams on the road by 8.
GB -5 at CHI +200 O/U 40.5
Speaking of 1, 2, 3, Cancun teams, we have a chance to bet against the Chicago Bears who have lost their last three games, fired their offensive coordinator, haven’t scored a touchdown in 23 straight drives, and apparently veterans want them to bench Caleb Williams. Green Bay on the other hand is a top 10 team in DVOA and is looking to bounce back after a loss to the Lions with Jordan Love getting a week healthier.
SEA +240 at SF -6.5 O/U 47.5
I love the 9ers here, Seattle is a team in free fall having lost 4 of their last 5 including a 12 point home loss the San Fran a few weeks ago. The 9ers on the other hand are coming into their own with CMC back and have won two in a row. Despite only being 5-4 SF is ranked 5th this year in DVOA and I think that they overwhelm the Seahawks.
KC +110 at BUF -2 O/U 45.5
This is pretty easy, if you get the chance to bet Mahomes as a dog, you take it. He is 26-8-1 ATS when a dog or favored by less than three. Don’t overthink this.
CIN +105 at LAC -1.5 O/U47.5
First of all, I am taking the over. The Bengals are 7-3 to the over this year and have scored 30+ in their last 3 games. Second, I am on the Chargers, in part because everyone is on the Bengals and I think that they’re a little overvalued at this point, they’re only ranked 16th in DVOA while LAC is ranked 10th and I just trust Herbert and Harbaugh to get this done.
HOU-7 at DAL +270 O/U 42.5
Dallas has joined Chicago and Vegas as the leaders in the 1, 2, 3, Cancun! rankings, and this feels like a get right game for the Texans coming off back to back losses. Dallas is just too dysfunctional to bet right now, even if they’re getting 7 points at home. They’re ranked 27 in the league in DVOA, Mike McCarthy is a dead man walking, Cooper Roush is their starting QB, give me Houston.