THURSDAY NIGHT:
CIN +220 at BAL -6 O/U 52.5
This is a sick game to get in a stand-alone spot with Baltimore looking like a Superbowl Contender going up against a hungry Cincy team that needs every win it can get coming down the stretch. With the number being way up at 6, I am taking Cincy. Joe Burrow as a dog of 3+ is 16-3 ATS while Lamar as a favorite of 3+ is only 9-19-1. Additionally, AFC North under dogs are covering at 60% since 2018 so I’ll take the points.
SUNDAY MORNING
NYG -6.5 at CAR +240 O/U 40.5
Guten tag, I am all over the Giants here. Historically, favorites have feasted in international games going 32-16 ATS and 22-12 ATS when favored by 3+. Additionally, NY is 30th in the league in luck so at some point they’ve got to get a bounce or two. And to top it off 75% of the money on only 25% of the bets are on the Giants so we’re tailing the whales here.
SUNDAY
DEN +320 at KC -8 O/U51.5
Low key, there are a lot of reasons to pick my beloved Broncos here, first of all, they got whomped last week on the scoreboard so the books are probably undervaluing them a touch. This is a tough spot for the Chiefs coming off short rest and a game that went into OT. In the last decade, a team coming off an OT game is only covering at 43%. Third, this is a good spot for Sean Payton, according to trends, he is 81-59-3 ATS on the road and 56-38-2 ATS as a dog. That being said, I can’t in good conscious tell you to bet Denver here. We are the good bad team; we are competent enough to beat bad teams but when we play good teams we get exposed. I am staying away.
PIT +125 at WAS -2.5 O/U 44.5
I do not want to bet on Russel Wilson, he tortured me and my beloved Broncos for two years. In his defense though, maybe being coached by Nate Hackett and then by Sean Payton who didn’t want him wasn’t the best situation for Russ. He has looked way better in the last two games with Pittsburgh and I will be begrudgingly betting on them this week as Mike Tomlin is 26-6 SU against rookie QBs and is 41-28-1f as a road dog ATS.
MIN -7 at JAX +280 O/U44.5
I am on the Jags here. Jacksonville, despite being 2-7 has been in almost every game with 5 one score losses. In fact, they are the 29th luckiest team in the NFL so we’re betting on some regression there against a Viking team that has lost 2 of their last 3 and barely squeeked out a win against the Colts last Sunday night. It’s also going to be hot in Jacksonville on Sunday which I don’t love for a team coming down from Minnesota.
ATL -4 at NO +160 O/U 46.5
We’re praying for a new coach bump here because we are all over the Saints here. Teams are 22-17 ATS after making a coaching change despite those same teams being only 37% ATS before making a coaching change. Additionally, Kirk Cousins has never been good coming off a win. He is 3-10-1 ATS coming off back to back wins. And, shockingly, he is only 3-11 ATS in his last 14 games making him the worst QB in the league indoors since 2020.
SF -6 at TB +210 O/U 51.5
The Niners are supposedly getting McCaffery back and should be healthier than they’ve been all year coming off a Bye. I like the 9ers here with a huge rest advantage against TB who is coming off a Monday night game that went to OT. Since 2019 San Fran is 4th in the league with a rest advantage covering at 60+ percent.
BUF-4 at IND +175 O/U 47.5
Here’s something crazy, last week Indy didn’t even enter the red zone. Here’s something else crazy, teams that do that come back and are 52% ATS the next week in the last 10 years. That being said, I am backing the Bills here, who are ranked 5th in the league in DVOA with a 4th ranked offense, going up against a 19th ranked Indy with a 20th ranked defense. I think the Bills feast here.
NE +225 at CHI -6 O/U38.5
I am all over New England here as Chicago rocketed up the “dysfunctional teams” rankings last week after DJ Moore walked off the field mid play and their running back thanked god via tweet after getting traded. To make matters worse, they are only 3-18 SU on the road in the last three years. Eberflus stinks and I can’t wait to bet against him.
TEN +280 at LAC-7 O/U38.5
The Titans are 1-7 ATS this year, and I don’t see that turning around against the Chargers who are up at 13th in DVOA and playing at home this week. The nail in the coffin for me this week, Herbert has closed as favorite of 7 or more 8 times in his career and he is 6-2 ATS in those games. I trust he and Harbaugh to dust this stupid Titans team.
PHI -7.5 at DAL +280 O/U 43.5
If AJ Brown plays I like Philly, if he doesn’t it’s a stay away. When he plays they average 29 ppg and when he doesn’t they average 17.
NYJ-2 at AZ+105
I think I like the Jets here coming off a Thursday night win against Houston. It seems like Rogers and his WRs are starting to click and I am leaning towards them against a Cardinals team that I think is a little smoke and mirrors-y. They may be 5-4 and be on a 3-game win streak, but they are ranked 11th in the league in luck and of their 5 wins, one was against a Chicago team that seems to be ready to mutiny, and 3 were by one score.
Det -3.5 at HOU +160 O/U 48.5
I am going to keep backing Detroit until they stop being profitable. They are 40-15 ATS in their last 55 and they are rolling SU as well. Goff has been super-hot this year with 11 TDs and only 17 incompletions in his last 5 games. On the other side of the ball, Houston isn’t doing it for me. They may be 6-3 but they’ve only covered 3 times this year. Of their 6 wins, 5 of them have been by one score and the Texans actually have a negative point differential. Give me Detroit!
MIA +100 at LAR -1 O/U 50.5
I actually kind of like the Dolphins, they’re 31st in luck this year and have been trending since Tua came back. They could easily be 5-3 as they have lost their last 3 games by a combined 10 points. That being said, this is the not the week that I back them. I think the Rams are legit now that they’re healthy. They’ve won three in a row and are rising in the DVOA rankings. Additionally, I like that they’re going against a bad Miami defense who is ranked 28th in defensive DVOA.