THURSDAY NIGHT
HOU +110 at NYJ -2 O/U 42.5
I just did a literal triple take when I saw that New York is favored. There is this advanced stat called wins, and Houston has 6 while the Jets only have 2. That alone should have Houston favored, even with Diggs going out for the season. I am by no means a Houston believer but I like them on the ML here against a Jets team that can only be described as a shit show.
DEN +360 at BAL -9.5 O/U 45.5
This line is insulting to the Broncos, as a fan, I am insulted. Denver is up to 5-3 despite being in the bottom third in the league in luck and they are 6-2 ATS. Denver is 11th in DVOA and I don’t think that the markets have caught up to them being a competent team this year under Payton. Baltimore, for their part, is looking to bounce back after that bad loss to the Browns and I guess I could see them trying to run up the score and win decisively, but ultimately, I trust the Broncos to cover here. Additionally big dogs are punching above their weight, dogs of +250 or higher are 12-7-1 ATS and 9-11 SU this year and my Broncos are my favorite of this category this week.
MIA +220 at BUF-6 O/U 48.5
Buffalo has had Miami’s number in the last few years going 5-2-1 in their last 8 and the games haven’t been particularly close either. That stretch includes a whomping of the Dolphins earlier in the year in Miami. Admittedly, Miami looked better last week in Tua’s return but still ultimately lost to a Cardinals team that only ranks 19th in DVOA. I like Buffalo by a lot here.
LAC -2 at CLE +105 O/U 42.5
Jameis killed me last week as the Browns beat Baltimore straight up, but that’s not scaring me away from fading the Browns again. All the, deserved, Watson vitriol over shadowed that this team has an exceedingly mediocre defense ranked 17th in defensive DVOA. I think the Browns regress back to their dog shit selves and the Herbert continues his good play as the Bolts cover.
NO -7 at CAR +260 O/U 43.5
The Panthers are an abomination to football. They’re 1-7 SU and ATS despite being in the middle third in luck they’re also, unsurprisingly, last in the league in DVOA. That alone has me on the Saints who should get Carr back, and should look more like the Saints from the first two weeks of the season when New Orleans put up 91 points including hanging 47 on the Panthers in week one.
LV +270 at CIN -7 O/U 46.5
Up until this week I have been pretty heavily invested on the Bengals being more unlucky than bad but losing so definitively to the Eagles has me a little gun shy in terms of willingness to back them going forward. That being said, I think Vegas is the top team in the 1, 2, 3 Cancun rankings so if I am going to back anyone it’s a Bengals team that can still convince themselves they have a shot at the playoffs if they get hot. This is probably a stay away, but if it drops to 6.5 I will be on the Bengals as the Raiders have gotten down by 10+ in each of their first 8 games.
WSH -3.5 at NYG +170 O/U 43.5
Before I make my pick, I want it on the record that I hate this line and something is fishy here. Ok, so with that being said, I am on Washington. The Giants let Russell Wilson score 26 against them last week and are ranked way down at 25th in DVOA. While Washington didn’t look amazing last week, they are still ranked 9th in DVOA and have feasted against the bad teams. I think what is ultimately making me lean stay away is just how easy this line looks, it opened at 3.5 and hasn’t moved despite 90% of the money coming in on the Commanders. Like I said, something is off here and I am staying away.
DAL +140 at ATL-3 O/U51.5
Betting against the Cowboys has been one of the most profitable trends in the NFL over the last 10 months or so, they are 3-9 ATS in their last 12. That combined with Dak being 2-10 in his last 12 games ATS as a dog has me leaning hard towards the Flacons at home. Atlanta also has the edge in DVOA 13-26.
NE +150 at TEN -3.5 O/U 37.5
If you have a strong lean one way or another here, more power to you, by all means fire away. I personally don’t know how you can bet either of these two teams. Both of them are in the bottom 6 in total DVOA, offensive DVOA, and Defensive DVOA and they only have 3 covers combined this year. Have fun, I am disavowing this game as vehemently as I can.
CHI +105 at AZ -1.5 O/U 44.5
These teams are basically the same in my estimation, and in DVOA where the Bears are ranked 17th against the Cards 19th. This has me thinking about just taking the Bears and the points, and it appears that the sharps are with me on that with 66% of the money on only 50% of the bets coming in for Chicago. Another thing that has me moving off the Cards is the fact that they’re only 4-4 despite being 6th in the NFL in luck. The other teams up in that echelon are like the undefeated Chiefs, one loss Lions, and 6-2 Packers. The only thing stopping me from pulling the trigger are the bad vibes emanating from the Chicago locker room after that horrific loss to the Commanders last week.
JAX +290 at PHI -7.5 O/U 45.5
I am going to attempt to do the impossible here and defend the Jags. Jacksonville is 27th in the league in luck this year and with a couple bounces, their record could be way different. They are 1-4 in one score games and have hung with both the Texans and the Packers. Now does this mean I think that they’re going to win? No, no, I certainly do not. But I do think they could cover 7.5 against an Eagles team that have won 3 out of their 5 wins by 5 points or less.
DET -3 at GB +125 O/U 48.5
This line is definitely assuming that Jordon Love is playing despite leaving the game last week with a groin strain. Detroit is the number one team in the league in DVOA and has been historically a very profitable side to back. However, the Packers at home have also been great ATS. Since 2019 they are 6-1 ATS as a home dog and lead the league at 60% ATS at home in that same time frame. Additionally, while Goff has been one of the best QBs ATS in recent years he is much more average in outdoor games. Ultimately this is a stay away for me with Jordon Love’s injury as I want to back the Packers but just can’t get all the way there.
LAR -1.5 at SEA +100 O/U 48.5
The Rams are coming off a mini-bye, which may not be as beneficial as you’d think. McVey is 0-8-1 ATS on extra rest in his last 9. That might not matter though as they are going up against a Seattle team that has lost 4 out of their last 5 and none of those losses have been by less than 8. Even as a road favorite, I think Stafford being re-united with Kupp and Nakua get it done. They looked awesome against the very good Vikings last Thursday.
SUNDAY NIGHT
IND +195 at MIN-5 O/U 46.5
With the Colts moving to Flacco I like them to cover. Indy has been in every single game this year despite a lot of erratic Richardson play. In fact, every single game they’ve played this year was with-in one score and they are 7-1 this year ATS.
MONDAY NIGHT
TB +340 at KC-8.5 O/U45.5
This is a big spread, and I know that KC has struggled when they’re big favorites with Mahomes only going 24-35-2 ATS when favored by more than 3.5. But the Bucs couldn’t really be more banged up without Mike Evans or Godwin going up against a really good KC defense ranked 4th in defensive DVOA. Meanwhile the Chiefs offense has woken up and added Deandre Hopkins. They’ve score 25+ in each of the last three weeks so Give me KC.