THURSDAY NIGHT
MIN -3 at LAR +125 O/U 48.5
The public is all over the Vikings this week with 80+% of the bets and money coming in on Minnesota. Only having to lay 3 points to back a 5-1 team vs a 2-4 team sure is tasty. In fact, it looks so good we have to take the Rams here. If you need more justification to bet LA, Sean McVey is 9-1 in his last 10 off short rest, and the Rams have been one of the unluckiest teams in the league this year while Minnesota has been one of the luckiest, so we should get some regression there. Anecdotally, this is a tough spot for Minnesota coming off a physical and emotional game against Detroit while, while the Rams are home dogs coming of a win against Vegas and are getting Cooper Kupp back.
SUNDAY
CAR +380 vs DEN -10 O/U 41.5
Look, 10 is a ton of points. I get that, but I have to bet the Broncos here, and not just because I love them. Carolina is 32nd out of 32 teams in DVOA, 1-6 ATS, super injured have lost their last each of 4 games by 10+, including a whomping against Marcus Mariota last week. On the other side of the ball, Denver is home coming off a mini bye, ranked 10th in DVOA, are 5-2 ATS, and have won 3 of their 4 wins this year by 10+ points including 19 over TB, 16 over Vegas, and 23 over New Orleans. Sean Payton knows how to be a front runner and I think he uses this spot to boost Nix’s confidence and run up the score.
NYJ -7 at NE +270 O/U 40.5
I guess you could play the Jets on a teaser but playing them at -7 is ludicrous even with the Pats being really bad and kind of in shambles after travelling back from London where their coach called them soft. Both teams are horrible ATS this season and they’re both in the bottom 8 of the league in DVOA. If I was going to play the spread at all I think I’d lean NE but ultimately this is a stay away, although I might play the over as both secondaries have injuries and 41 is pretty low.
PHI +125 at CIN -2.5
My worst pick of the week last week was to fade Philly, and you know what? We’re doing it again. I just am not a believer in either Sirianni or Hurts, and I absolutely buy all the rumors that their relationship is strained at best. The only good win that Philly has was week one on that stupid Brazil field against Green Bay. Other than that they’ve lost to the mediocre Falcons, gotten whomped by Tampa, squeaked by the bad Saints and Browns and beaten up on the very bad Giants (hand up, my bad for thinking they might be mediocre). Meanwhile, other than the stupid week one loss to the Pats the Bengals have played Superbowl contenders the Chiefs and Bengals super close and won 3 out of their last 4. Cherry on top, Jalen is only 40% ATS on the road while Burrow has covered at about 60% in his career.
GB -3.5 at Jax +160 O/U 49.5
Green Bay -3.5 against a potentially jet lagged Jags team coming back from two weeks in London looks a little bit too easy here, and if you jump on it I won’t blame you. I am staying away from it though. Green Bay is the luckiest team in the league according to the Action Network, while the Jags are way down at 28th, so there should be some regression there. The sharps also seem to have jumped on the Jags with 39% of the money coming in Jacksonville on only 14% of the bets.
TEN +450 at DET -11 O/U 44.5
If there has ever been a teaser leg, it’s Detroit -11. But I also like them straight up. The Titans are unbettable, they’re 1-5 ATS this year and 27th in DVOA. Their QB situation of Will Levis and Mason Rudolph is the Spider Man meme in terms of inspiring confidence. The Lions on the other hand are 2nd in DVOA and 5-1 ATS. The Lions have also been super profitable ATS in the last few years, covering at 70% in the last 4 seasons, and Jared Goff is 40-18 ATS indoors. It’s a lot of points but I am on the Lions and the over. Detroit might get 45 all by themselves.
ATL -2.5 at TB +120 O/U 46.5
Before last Monday night this lines was TB -2.5 and it’s swung 5 full points on the back of injuries to Mike Evans and Godwin. That kind of sums up my feelings exactly. I don’t know how you can bet Tampa here missing their 2 best receivers going up against a team that put up 36 against your defense a few weeks ago. Also, and this has been catastrophic to my bankroll, road favorites have been cleaning up lately at 16-2 since the start of week 5, and road teams are 61% this year ATS. We’re on Atlanta, reluctantly because I love Baker.
AZ +155 at MIA -3.5 O/U 45.5
I like the under here. Tua is supposed to be coming back but I would imagine that he’s going to be pretty rusty, plus the Cardinals are travelling east for an early game off a short week. It also looks like there are going to be storms in Miami, so give me the under and I am staying away from a side.
BAL -8 at CLE +320 O/U 44.5
At -8 I am taking Baltimore even off a short week. They’re ranked number 1 in DVOA, and are 5-2 despite being mid-pack in luck. Jameis, despite being a national treasure has killed bettors, he’s the 5th least profitable QB ATS since being drafted, 13-23-2 ATS at home, and last year was 0-3 ATS in starts. Meanwhile since 2019 with a rest disadvantage Baltimore is 13-5 ATS and 38-30 in conference games while Cleveland is only 26-39-1 in that same time.
IND +195 at HOU -5 O/U 45.5
I fully expect to be on an island here, but I am on Indy +5. All seven of Indy’s games this year have been with-in one score and 4 of them have been by less than 5. I don’t really think that the Colts are going to be able to get a win, but I do trust them to keep it close. For Houston’s part, 4 of their 5 wins have been by one score as well so I don’t worry too much about this game getting out of hand either way. I will also be playing Indy as a teaser leg.
NO +290 at LAC -7 O/U 40.5.
Last week the Saints got crushed by my beloved Broncos, while the week before the Broncos lost to the Chargers. So by the transitive property alone I should be betting the Chargers. That being said, I am gonna hold my nose and bet New Orleans this week. 7 is just too many points for a Chargers team coming off a Monday night loss vs a Saints team coming off a mini-bye after playing Thursday night last week. Also of note, the Chargers haven’t won a game by more than 7 since week 2 against the dog shit Panthers who were still starting Bryce Young.
BUF -3 at SEA +135 O/U 46.5
I will be on the Seahawks here as long as DK Metcalf plays. Here’s a fun fact about Buffalo, their 5 wins have been against the Cardinals (bad), the Dolphins (Thursday night game where Tua went out early), the Jags (offensive to football), the Jets (dumpster fire) and the Titans (total catastrophe). They’ve lost the two games that they have played against competent teams. I just think that this team is kind of smoke and mirrors, like for example Josh Allen hasn’t thrown a pick this year but ranks 4th in the league with 10 turnover worthy throws. So I think Seattle steps up here at home.
CHI -3 at WAS +130 O/U 43.5
This isn’t sophisticated gambling advice but I think you have to bet Washington as dogs in case Daniels plays and the line swings 5 points. The other option is to tease this game up to Washington +10.5.
KC -9.5 at LV +360 O/U 41.5
I feel so stupid even writing this but I am on Vegas -9.5. That’s a lot of points for KC to cover without their top 3 WRs and their top RB. If you need more convincing, Mahomes is only 42% ATS when favored by more than 3 and the sharps agree with me as 52% of the money on 17% of the bets are on the Raiders.
DAL +170 at SF -4 O/U 45.5
I know Dallas hasn’t been good this year, but I like them in this spot coming off the bye getting Parsons back against a 9ers team that is going to be for sure be missing McCaffrey, Aiyuk, and presumably Debo not to mention has Jennings and Bosa listed as questionable. Backing the Dallas pick is the fact that since 2003 Mike McCarthy has been the best coach in the league ATS with extra rest. Another thing making me feel better about this pick is the whales coming in on Dallas as 65% of the money is on Dallas despite only 49% of the bets.
NYG +225 at PIT -6 O/U 36.5
This has potential to be a double over reaction spot as the Giants got crushed by Philly last week and Pitt crushed the Jets in primetime. For me this comes down to one thing, Russell Wilson should not be favored by 6 points against a team of NFL football players. I know he played good last week, but I watched him for 2 years in Denver and it was bleak and one game is not going to wipe that from my memory. Give me the Giants in a bounce back and the under.