THURSDAY NIGHT
DEN -2.5 at NO +120 O/U 37.5
The smart part of my brain is screaming stay-away. Both teams are super banged up, we’ve got rookie QBs on both sides, and Thursdays are always weird. But, if you’re looking for reasons to bet New Orleans, you’ve got the home dog trend, and dogs coming off a blowout trend both covering at about 60%. If you’re looking to bet Denver, which the fan/dumb part of my brain is, 59% of the money is on Denver despite only 40% of the bets so maybe the sharps know something here. Whichever way you want to go, this has to be a last-minute bet based on the injury report.
LONDON
NE +195 at JAX -5.5 O/U 42.5
I can’t believe I am writing this but I am on the Jags in this spot. I think being able to stay in England for a week before this game is a huge advantage. And if there’s one positive thing to say about Doug Pederson, it’s that he’s good when his team gets extra rest. With the Jags he’s 4-0 ATS with a rest advantage. Additionally, as of this writing, the whales agree with me. 70% of the money on only 15% of the bets has come in on Jax.
TEN +360 at BUF -9 O/U 41.5
I am holding my nose and taking the Titans and the points here. This game opened up at 7.5 and has been bet up to 9 with over 85% of the money coming in on the Bills, so if you’re a fade the public bettor that’s reason enough to take the Titans. If you need more though, Tennessee is the least lucky team in the league according to the Action Network, and in games when Josh Allen is favored by more than 4 points, he is only 32% ATS. 9 is just too many points here.
HOU +130 at GB-2.5 O/U 47.5
I like Green Bay in this spot as Matt Lefluer is one of the best coaches in the league as a home favorite and Houston is banged up, missing Nico Collins for sure and possibly Laremy Tunsil. I am just not sold on Houston being as good as everyone thinks they are. Their only big win of the season was last week against New England in Drake Maye’s first start. Other than that, they haven’t had a decisive win all season, and it’s not like they’ve gone up against a gauntlet of good teams. They were the hot pick of the off season to take a jump, but I think they are a weak 5-1 so we’re fading them until I see them beat a good team, which will probably be this week given how strongly I have come out against them.
PHI -3 at NYG +145 O/U42.5
I really like this spot for the Giants as a home dog. Philly is not good. They aren’t. They are 3-2 despite being the 8th luckiest team in the league, and their 3 wins are Cleveland by 4, New Orleans by 3, and Green Bay in a weird Brazil game where Jordon Love goes out and dudes kept slipping on the horrible turf. I don’t really think that New York is all that great either, but if these teams are basically the same (21st vs 23rd in DVOA) I want the team who is getting points at home and has a coach who doesn’t seem to be having a mental break down.
DET +115 at MIN -2.5 O/U 49.5
This might be the best game all season and somehow only the second-best game of the week. First, I am taking the over. That’s not just wish casting, Detroit has scored 40+ in their last two games and Minnesota has scored 28+ in 3 of their 5 games this year and 30+ in 2 of their last 3. That combined with Detroit losing Hutchinson has me thinking points. As far as a side, I like Minnesota at home. They are 5-0 ATS and are covering by an average of 13 points, and I like this spot with them coming off a bye vs a Detroit team that emptied the clip against Dallas to run up the score last week.
SEA +125 at ATL -2.5 O/U 51.5
I really like the Hawks here coming off of a mini bye after playing Thursday night last week. Atlanta has been the 3rd luckiest team in the league while Seattle has been mid pack, so we’re expecting some regression there. These teams are very similar in DVOA with Atlanta edging Seattle 10th to 14th place, so I like getting points for the team that should be more rested. The sharps agree with me by the way, 85% of the money on 58% of the bets is on Seattle.
CIN-6 at CLE+225 O/U 41.5
We are going to fade the Browns here, I can’t imagine vibes are high in that locker room having to follow massage boy onto the field, especially after trading Amari Cooper. I think Cleveland is a top tier 1, 2, 3 Cancun team going up against a Bengals team that should be hungry as it needs every win it can get at this point.
MIA +145 at IND -3.5 O/U 43.5
I am taking Miami provided that Anthony Richardson starts. If it’s Flacco, this is a stay-away. He is just too competent to fade when he is going up against a team that is just trying to keep their head above water. If it is Richardson, and we’re still getting more than 3, I am leaning Miami coming off a bye and an extra week to get Tyler Huntley up to speed. If Huntley looks bad here, that is a bad sign for Mike McDaniels so I expect him to have some offensive tricks up his sleeve against a Colts team that ranks 26th in defensive DVOA.
CAR +290 at WAS -7.5 O/U 51.5
I really like Washington here, and I know how square that is. None of Carolina’s 5 losses have been particularly close, they are -101 on the season in point differential, and that includes their 14-point win over Vegas. Their offense is 27th in DVOA and their defense is 31st, which is a bad recipe for covering spreads of any size. The Commanders, on the other hand, have handed out some whompings this year. Their previous 2 wins were by 21 and 28 so I like their willingness to run up the score against a bad Panthers team.
LV +260 at LAR -7 O/U 43.5
This is a mega stay away. Fundamentally, I don’t think that any 1-4 team should be favored by 7 against pretty much anybody. But I also don’t trust Vegas to keep it close. I wrote last week that Vegas was a top tier 1, 2, 3, Cancun team and I don’t think losing Davante and getting whomped by Pittsburgh will change anything there. The only way I play this game is if Kupp somehow comes back, but even then 7 points is a ton when you’re backing one of the most injured teams in the league.
KC +100 at SF -1.5 O/U 46.5
Don’t over think this, the play is Kansas City. Andy Reid off a bye is 21-4 and Mahomes is 25-8-1 when he closes as less than a 3 point favorite. You could talk yourself into the 9ers by saying that the Chiefs have been one of the luckiest teams of the year and that 4 of their 5 wins have been by one score and these teams are basically tied in DVOA. But off a bye with no CMC and Jordan Mason questionable for SF, I am taking the Chiefs.
SUNDAY NIGHT
NYJ-2.5 at PIT +110 O/U 38.5
It hurts my stomach to write this, but I like the Jets here. Rogers looked interested in being an NFL QB last Monday night against Buffalo and the organization trading for his boy Davante should keep him interested at least for another week. Additionally, despite being a soap opera, you could make the case that the Jets should have a better record as 3 of their 4 losses have been by 7 points or less, including hanging with the top ranked Vikings. The cherry on top, Russel Wilson will be starting for the Steelers. Give me the Jets and the under.
MONDAY NIGHT
BAL-3.5 at TB +160 O/U 49.5
Lamar Jackson is 22-1 SU against NFC teams and he’s covering at over 60%. I am usually skeptical about these types of trends, but I think that really really good QBs are just such unique players that they have an advantage in non-conference games because those teams see them so infrequently. The only things that are scaring me about riding Baltimore here is the hook, if it were 2.5 I would be all over it, and relatedly the fact that three of Baltimore’s four wins have been by 7 points or less. I also like the prime time under with Tampa Bay getting some guys back on defense.
LAC -2.5 at AZ +115 O/U 43.5
I lean Chargers here. I think Harbaugh is too good of a coach, and has the Chargers playing too hard, to lose to bad teams and with the Cards coming in at 22nd in DVOA they are bordering on bad. The only thing stopping me from placing that bet right now is all the questionables on the injury report for both teams. And, I’ll take the under, especially if Harrison JR can’t come back in time from his concussion.