THURSDAY NIGHT
SF -3.5 at SEA +155 O/U49.5
My typical lean on Thursday nights is to take the underdogs and the points as these games tend to be weird rock fights. That being said, I am going with the 9ers coming off a loss to the Cards. This will be the 3rd game in 11 days for Seattle, who is dealing with a banged-up defense. Additionally, the Hawks have been the 7th luckiest team in the league compared to the 9ers being only the 23rd so if that regresses to the mean I like San Fran and the under.
LONDON
JAX +115 at CHI -2.5 O/U45.5
This is the ultimate stay away. I think you can make cases for both teams here. The Jags have been one of the unluckiest teams in the league plus should be more familiar with London travel because they do it every year. On the other hand, Jax has the worst defense in the league according to DVOA going against a Bears offense that got Keenan Allen back and has looked better each week. If I play this game, I’ll be on the Bears but I’ll probably leave this game alone.
SUNDAY
LAC -3 at DEN +130 O/U 35.5
I am all over the Broncos here, and this time it’s not just because I love them. Denver is actually slightly outpacing the Chargers in DVOA and have scraped their way to 3-2 despite being 26th in the league in luck this year. Plus, we have the encouraging trends of home dogs and divisional dogs covering at around 60%.
HOU -7 at NE +260 O/U 38.5
This season has been brutal to favorites of 5.5 or more, and we’re going to ride that trend. This will be Drake Maye’s first start of his career, and I think New England keeps it close by grinding the pace down. This is also a bet against Houston who may be 4-1 but they’re also the luckiest team in the league and all of their wins have been by less than 7.
WAS +225 at BAL -6.5 O/U 51.5
I love Baltimore here. Lamar is 60% ATS since 2019 when he got full time starting duties. Baltimore is ranked 2nd in DVOA and has gotten themselves to 3-2 despite being only 20th in the league in luck. Meanwhile I think this is a good time to sell high on Washington who has taken advantage of some mediocre teams to get to 4-1.
CLE +360 at PHI-9 O/U 42.5
Cleveland is the worst team in the league according to DVOA as they are being drug down by their abomination of an offense. That being said, 9 points it too many here. Philly isn’t exactly beating down the door at only 24th in DVOA. Additionally, this is an overreaction bet as Cleveland is coming off a blowout and teams that got blown out the previous week are covering at about 60%.
ARI +195 at GB -5 O/U47.5
Since Green Bay hired Matt LaFluer, they lead the league ATS (59%). They are even better ATS at home (63%) and we’re betting on them to keep that going. We’re also taking the under here as the forecast in Green Bay includes winds in the 15-20 mph and in winds over 10 MPH the under hits at 57%. The weather should also help the Pack here and accentuate their already notable home field advantage.
TB -3.5 at NO +155 O/U 41.5
Derek Carr is going to be out for multiple weeks after that hit he took on Monday Night against KC. That means the Saints have a short week to get either Jake Haener or 5th round rookie Spencer Rattler ready to face a serviceable defense in Tampa that loves to rush. We’re betting Bucs.
IND +100 at TEN -1 O/U43.5
The Action Network has this game opening at Colts -1.5 but now I am seeing the Titans favored despite the Colts being the most public play of the week with 93% of the money coming in on them. I was going already going to lean Titans here as they have been the least lucky team in the league thus far and Vegas seems to know something as well.
PIT -3 at LV +145 O/U 36.5
All the trends should have us on Vegas here, we have a home dog with a rest advantage and a low total. That being said, we are on the Steelers. Unsurprisingly, Mike Tomlin is 57% ATS off a loss and he’s going up against a Vegas team that is really bad. They rank 29th in total DVOA and neither side of the ball has shined. Pitt for their part hasn’t been lighting it up according to DVOA but they’re been good enough to cover here against a Vegas team that feels close to the top in the unofficial 1, 2, 3, Cancun rankings.
DET -3 at DAL +140 O/U 52.5
This feels like it might be the squarest pick of the week, but I don’t care we’re taking the Lions. Dan Campbell is 10-2 with a rest advantage and Detroit is 5th in the league in DVOA. Dallas on the other hand is mid pack in DVOA and coming off a Monday night game that did end until 1:30 on Tuesday Morning. I also think that the Lions might want to pour it on here after last year when they lost to the Cowboys on that bad ineligible receiver call. Usually, I don’t buy into that stuff but I have a hard time believing that Dan Campbell has forgotten about that.
ATL -6 at CAR +220 O/U46.5
It makes me sick to say this but I am taking Carolina as a divisional home dog coming off a blowout. This feels like the ultimate rat line of the week and the public has taken the cheese with 94% of the money on Atlanta here. Let me make something very clear, this is not an endorsement of the Panthers, this is a sell high spot for Atlanta who is 5th in the league in luck, and actually has a negative point differential for the season despite a winning record.
SUNDAY NIGHT
CIN -3.5 at NYG +145 O/U 47.5
I know I wrote this last week, but in the immortal words of Christian Bale as Michael Burry, I wasn’t wrong I was just early. Cincy is not bad; they are just unlucky. They are 29th in the league in luck and 12th in DVOA. All four of their losses have been by one score, and they lost to KC and Baltimore (the 2nd and 3rd ranked teams in DVOA) by a combined 4 points. At some point they’re gonna get a bounce and I think it’s here. We’re also switching things up with the total and taking a primetime over. The Bengals can’t stop anyone and have given up 24+ in their last 4 and 38+ in 2 of the last 3 weeks against a Giants team that put up 29 on Seattle last week without Malik Nabors.
MONDAY NIGHT
BUF-2.5 at NYJ +115 O/U 40.5
This is kind of a choose your own adventure game. Trends say Jets as a home divisional dog. DVOA likes Buffalo 6-22. New coach theory says Jets, but they had to go to London last week. I am taking NY here as they actually had a shot to beat a good Vikings team last week and hopefully the vibes have picked up enough to have them playing hard. One thing I definitely know is that I am taking the under. In the last 10 playing’s of this match-up the under has hit 8 times.