Thursday Night
TB +105 at ATL -1.5 O/U 43.5
This game is a toss-up, these teams are basically tied in luck and DVOA and both teams are coming in pretty beat up. It’s a small sample size but Todd Bowles has been pretty bad off short rest and in divisional games. I am staying away from a side and just taking the primetime under.
London Game
NYJ +125 at MIN -2.5 O/U 40.5
If I was gonna bet an international game, I’d be all over the Vikings here. They are ranked number one in the league in DVOA and they’re going up against a Jets team that is giving off really bad vibes as Rogers is openly beefing with his head coach. Only thing that scares me here is this maybe being too square, which the whales seem to agree with as 82% of the money is on NY despite only 13% of the bets.
Sunday
LV +115 at DEN -2.5 O/U 35.5
First of all, we’re taking the under here. Low unders of 37 or less have been cleaning up since 2020, hitting at 73%. Neither of these teams seems particularly interested or able to run up the score so throw that on the card. In terms of side, we’re obviously taking my Broncos here. Denver has the edge in DVOA 18-27 and Denver has scratched back to 2-2 despite being one the unluckiest teams in the league according to The Action Network.
BAL-2.5 at CIN +125 O/U 50.5
This feels like the “I like it so much I have to go the other way” bet of the week. Baltimore should be the play here coming off a beat down of Buffalo and that’s exactly why we’re backing Cincy here as a home divisional dog. For being 1-3 the Bengals have been more unlucky than bad this year, they’re ranked 12th in DVOA and 29th in luck so we’re buying in low.
IND +130 at JAX -3 O/U 46.5
I am not here to yuck anybody’s yum but if you’re planning on betting this game maybe call one of those numbers for help with a gambling addiction. The Jags have been a bummer and Pederson just threw his players under the bus. Meanwhile Both Anthony Richardson and Jonathon Taylor are hurt for Indy. If you want to pick a side you can pick your poison- the Jags have been one of the unluckiest teams in the league so maybe they get a couple bounces this week, on the other hand Indy is 13th in DVOA compared to the Jags at 30.
MIA -105 at NE -1 O/U 36.5
Can we just call this game a tie and let both teams try again in week 6? These teams rank 29th and 31st in DVOA and 31st and 32nd in watchability when Tua is out. Miami went from the first quarter of week 2 to the 4th quarter of week 4 without a TD and the Pats are averaging like 11 ppg so we’re taking the under.
CLE +145 at WAS -3 O/U 43.5
I like Washington here as The Browns are 32nd in DVOA. I like Jayden going up against a Browns defense that people perceive as elite but are actually only 20th in the league, and last year had some pretty notable home/away splits. If you wanted to bet Cleveland here, which I don’t know why you’d want to, you could say that the Commanders have been one of the luckiest teams in the league and that should regress. I don’t care, we’re taking the good vibes Commanders over massage boy et al.
BUF -1.5 at HOU +100 O/U 47.5
I love the Bills here in a bounce back spot against a Houston team who have squeaked their way to 3-1. The Texans 3 wins have been against Indy by 2, the Bears by 6 in Caleb’s first primetime game, and then they needed a game winning drive to get by the Jags last week. The only time they’ve played a good team they got whomped by Minnesota. This is backed up by the action network having the Texans as the luckiest team in the league. If you need a little more convincing, the Bills are 60% ATS off a loss since 2019.
CAR +170 at CHI -4 O/U 42.5
Caleb Williams has struggled most when he has been pressured. Luckily for him, the Panthers are one of the worst teams in the league at generating pressure. That combined with the Bears getting Deandre Swift involved in a big way last week and getting to play at home for the second week in a row has me on Chicago.
ARI+270 at SF-7 O/U49.5
This game opened at 9.5 and has been bet down. Probably because lots of trends have us on the Cards here. Divisional dogs cover at 60%, and dogs coming off a blowout are covering at 56+% depending on how big of a blowout we’re talking. Additionally, Kyler Murray is 62% ATS as a dog in his career. I like it at 7 but as of this writing you can still find it at 7.5 in some places.
GB -3 at LAR +140 O/U 48.5
The whales are on the Rams here as a home dog with about 2/3rds of the money on only 43% of the bets coming in on LA. Some reasons for that might be Sean McVey being 55% as a dog since 2018 or LA being one of the unluckiest teams in the league compared to the Packers being mid pack. I like the Packers here, however, Jordon Love should look better coming off injury and even with the Malik Willis stretch, GB is 10th in DVOA while the Rams are 26th.
NYG +230 at SEA -6.5 O/U 43.5
This game opened up at 3.5 and has climbed to 6.5 presumably due to the Malik Nabers injury. I don’t think you can bet on the Giants without Nabers as Seattle has been good this year, at 4th in the league in DVOA while the Giants are all the way down at 25th. If Nabers does get cleared and the line doesn’t fall, you could talk me into betting the Giants here as Seattle has come out on the good side of a massive luck disparity this year.
Sunday Night
DAL +120 at Pit -2.5 O/U 44.5
The public is all over Dallas this week with 80% of the money and bets coming in on Dem Boys but I want Pitt in a rock fight. They’ve been playing good ball and are ranked 8th in DVOA. Additionally, since Tomlin was hired the Steelers are 4th in the league ATS at home. Dallas, on the other hand is super banged up with Parsons doubtful and Lawrence on the IR.
Monday Night
NO +200 at KC -5.5 O/U43.5
I am holding my nose and picking the Saints here. New Orleans is actually rated higher than KC in DVOA and has overcome being one of the unluckiest teams in the league to get to 2-2. The Chiefs on the other hand have been the 2nd luckiest team in the league, winning all four of their games by one score or less. This is a real gut check pick, but it helps that the whales are on the Saints as well with 83% of the money on 65% of the bets.