Week 4 NFL Picks
Thursday Night
DAL-5.5 at NYG +220 O/U 44.5
This looks like the easiest pick of the week, and the betting public agrees with 83% of the bets and 90% of the money coming in on the Cowboys. They have good reason to fade the Giants, as Dallas has 13 wins in their last 14 against NYG by an average of 16 points. That combined with Dak being 25-8 ATS as a favorite in division screams Dallas. I, however, think this is the ultimate rat line, and I like it so much that I’m taking the Giants and the under.
DEN +290 at NYJ -7.5 O/U 38.5
My beloved Donkeys are coming off an awesome win against a good Bucs team, and I think we’ve figured some stuff out with Bo Nix who looked good last week (don’t even have to put how he doesn’t suck in parentheses because of how obvious it is that he doesn’t suck!). This is Denver’s second straight road game but they’re staying out east this week which should negate some of the advantage that the Jets have from playing their second straight home game and having extra rest. Ultimately this comes down to 7 being too many points, and Denver still being rated as the 30th luckiest team in the league compared to the Jets being the 8th. The Broncos are gonna start getting bounces and are going to cover the 7 points, and I can’t pick against them because I love them.
MIN +120 at GB -2.5 O/U 43.5
This line suggests that we’re getting a relatively healthy Jordon Love and so we’re gonna be backing him and Green Bay here. The Packers are one of the best in the league at covering division games and they’re 2nd in the league as a home favorite since 2019. The Vikings, on the other hand, are 26th in the league ATS as a road dog in that same time frame. If you like the Packers here, they are still in the +300 range to win the NFC North after weathering the Malik Willis stretch.
NO +1.5 at ATL -1.5 O/U42.5
The public is all over New Orleans here with 90 percent of the bets and money pulling this line down from ATL -3.5. We’re pouncing on those free 2 points because Dennis Allen is still coaching Derek Carr, and the Falcons have looked better every week. Go birds.
PHI -2.5 at TB +110 O/U 44.5
Both teams are super banged up here with the Eagles possibly missing both their top WRs and Lane Johnson while the Bucs are no healthier. With all those Qs on the game report you have to wait until Saturday or Sunday to bet this game. One nugget I will leave you with is: teams after scoring less than 10 points are covering at 60% the next week. That would suggest leaning TB who ran up against a buzzsaw in my Broncos last week and should bounce back.
CIN -4.5 at CAR +175 O/U 48.5
I am hammering Cincy here. Early season winless teams are covering at 60% in weeks 3-6 and the Bengals have been the second most unlucky team of the year compared to the Panthers who are the 11th luckiest. Despite being 0-3 Cincy is mid pack in DVOA while Carolina is 29th.
JAX +240 at HOU -6.5 O/U 45.5
I hate this pick but we’re going Jags here and the why is very simple. Teams who got beat by 35+ are 72% ATS the next week. If you need another justification to hold your nose and bet the dog, the Jags are 29th in the league in luck while the Texans are 5th. So, if you can stomach it, Jacksonville probably isn’t as bad as we think. On the other hand, they might be a total disgrace to football.
PIT -2 at IND +110 O/U 40.5
Pittsburgh is getting a lot of love for beating up on some pretty mediocre QBs en route to being 3-0. They beat Kirk Cousins in his first start after tearing his achilles, Bo Nix in his second start (even though Bo is the best and I love him and would give him a kidney), and Justin Herbert with a high ankle sprain. That combined with Mike Tomlin being 27th in the league in cover rate as an away favorite in his career, and a massive luck differential, I am taking Indy as a road dog.
LAR +125 at CHI -2.5 O/U 40.5
The Rams had one of the wins of the week last week, beating San Francisco, while the Bears lost to a mediocre Colts team. I get that LA is the most injured team in the league but this line is weird to me and I’m backing them as they have a massive coaching advantage against Ebberflus and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron who is already on the hot seat. I think the Rams win in a rock fight.
WAS+145 at AZ-3 O/U 50.5
Before Washington beat Cincy last week, the line for this game was AZ -5.5. With the line coming down, the whales have jumped on the Cards with only 46% of the bets but 65% of the money on AZ. I am tailing the whales here. This is a tough spot for a rookie QB playing on a short week and on the road against a Cardinals team who is ranked 11th in DVOA while Washington is only coming in at 26th.
NE +400 at SF-10 O/U 39.5
I am taking the Pats and the points here. In each of the first three weeks the biggest favorites have lost straight up and dogs of 5.5 or more are 13-2 ATS. That combined with the fact that the 49ers are one of the most injured teams in the league makes 10 points hard to swallow. This is especially true since the 9ers aren’t exactly lighting it up and are only mid pack in DVOA this season. Kyle Shanahan also isn’t exactly popping off the page ATS (51% overall as a head coach and only 47.5% as a favorite). Side note, can you imagine what the line of this game would be if CMC and Debo were playing and Kittle wasn’t questionable? 16.5?
CLE +110 at LV -2 O/U 37.5
Something is fishy here. This line opened at Browns -2.5 and has moved all the way to Raiders -2 despite the whales coming in on the Browns with 58% of the money on only 45% of the bets. I am staying away from the sides completely here and taking the over. 37.5 is low, the Browns gave up 21 to the Giants at home and Myles Garrett is questionable, while on the other side of the ball Vegas gave up 36 to the Panthers and Maxx Crosby is questionable.
KC -8.5 at LAC +340 O/U 39.5
I want to bet the Chargers so bad here. We have a home dog, in a divisional game, laying a lot of points, with a low total, and if anyone knows how to muck up a game its Jim Harbaugh. The Chargers are just so beat up with Herbert and Alt questionable, Derwin James suspended, and Bosa leaving the previous game early. The Chargers are actually better than KC in DVOA and the Chiefs have been the luckiest team in the league this year. It would be a great time to fade KC but I can’t justify placing a unit on a team that might be led by Easton Stick against a team that will be led by Patrick Mahomes.
SUNDAY NIGHT
BUF+115 at BAL -2.5 O/U 46.5
The Bills lead the league in DVOA but Baltimore isn’t far behind in 5th. The Bills have also had a massive luck advantage this year ranking 6th in the league in luck while the Ravens are 24th. That disparity plus some Lamar trends like being 23-7 ATS as a favorite of 3 or less or as a dog, and being 14-7 ATS in primetime have me on Baltimore at home. And you know who agrees with me? The whales, as 57% of the money on 24% of the bets are on Baltimore. We’re also taking the primetime under as always.
MONDAY NIGHT
TEN +100 at MIA -1 O/U 36.5
Thank God we have 2 Monday night games again this week, because this one is bleak. It looks like we might get another Skyler Thompson game, and if he can’t go they might have to sign someone off the street or trade for someone. For the Titans part, Will Levis isn’t exactly inspiring hope as the Titans are 27th in DVOA. There might be some sharp money on Tennessee with 81% of the money on 67% of the bets, so if you want to bet this game there you go. And give me the prumder (prime time under)
SEA +165 at DET -3.5 O/U 46.5
The Lions have been the best team in the league at 69% ATS since Dan Campbell took over. And they’ve one of the best in the league coming off a win at 16-9 ATS under Campbell. Additionally, Seattle has been the 2nd luckiest team in the league so we’re looking for a regression now that they have their first real test of the season. Give me the Lions and the prumder.