It’s President’s Cup week! This is the 15th playing of The P Cup, with the US leading the series 12-1-1 they come in to the week as -295 favorites, but that doesn’t mean we can’t figure out a way to make some money. Today we’re going to try to figure out what the exact score of this thing is going to be and look at the odds of those possibilities.
So, first of all, the International team has a slight home course advantage because they are able to set up the course to their liking. The PGA Tour still sets up the tees and pins so the home course advantage is not as extreme as The Ryder Cup, but being able to control the rough height around the course, green speeds, and firmness has connoted a slight historical advantage. In the 8 versions of this event played on US soil the American team is winning by an average of 5.5 points, while they’re only winning by 2.5 on average on the road, and with this years event at Royal Montreal we’re taking that into account.
Next we have to look at the strength of the teams, The USA has had the better average OWGR ranking in all but one Cup, and this year the USA is fielding one of its strongest teams ever with an average world ranking of 12.4, the third best in the history of US Teams, while the International Team comes in with an average ranking of 34.4th in the world, only their 10th strongest of the 15 teams they’ve put forward.
You may think that this talent disparity would lead to an absolute whomping but keep in mind that the only 4 of 14 President’s Cups have been decided by more than 6 points, and that includes only 1 of the last 10 playings, and the home teams have never been the whompees, only ever the whompers.
This leads me to the gambling options. I have found odds on Fan Duel for the USA by 7+ (+185), the USA by 1-3 (+380), or the USA by 4-6 (+380). I don’t like these. We can do better. Instead, I want to bet on the exact score/exact margin of victory, and I want to bet that the exact score will be:
USA 16.5 INT 13.5
USA 17 INT 13
or
USA 17.5 INT 12.5
All of these options seem to be about +1100 so if you bet one unit on each you are looking at a +360ish payout if one of them hit.
Book it.