Thursday Night:
NE +220 at NYJ -6 O/U 38.5
Everything here screams NE as a divisional dog with a low total in primetime. All three of those trends cover at between 56% and 60%. I also like the Pats getting to play a 40 year old quarterback in his 3rd game in 11 days. We’re also adding the primetime under here, as is tradition.
Sunday:
Den +250 at TB -6.5 O/U 39.5
Tampa -6.5 is probably the squarest pick of the week. The 2-0 Bucs have looked awesome and are coming off beating the preseason sexy Super Bowl pick Lions, while my beloved Broncos look to have an impotent offense as Bo (who does not suck, he doesn’t!) has struggled early. Throw that out, we’re taking Denver. The Action Network has TB as the second luckiest team in the league, compared with Denver being the unluckiest. Those should both regress to the mean, and winless road teams early in the season cover 60% of the time.
LAC +105 at PIT -1.5 O/U 35.5
This game opened at Pit -3 and has been bet down with 74% of the bets and 78% of the money coming in on the Chargers. I am taking the Chargers since road dogs with a low total tend to cover, and because I am still mad at the Steelers for beating the Broncos last week. Spite bet.
HOU -2 at MIN +115 O/U 46.5
Second week in a row with the Viks being a home dog, and the whales have flocked to this game. 69% of the money is on the Vikings despite only 35% of the bets. I am gonna tail them.
PHI +130 at NO-2.5 O/U 49.5
Since 2022 when Dennis Allen took over as head coach for the Saints, he is 42% ATS and he’s been even worse as a favorite at 36% ATS. The Saints have been fun but I think this has just been a blip and we’re going to see the same old Saints.
GB +110 at TEN -1.5 O/U 37.5
I am sure you could find a trend either way here, but then you’re either betting on Will Levis or Malik Willis, so god bless you if you choose to bet this game. If I had to bet it I would pick the Titans as so far this season they’ve been the second unluckiest team in the league and you’d expect that to change.
NYG +250 at CLE -6.5 O/U 38.5
Similar to the Broncos game, lots of trends are saying Giants. 0-2 road dog with a low total, plus another big luck disparity here as the Giants were the 25th luckiest team while Cleveland is 8th. That being said, it’s a tough look for the G men to go into last week with a banged-up kicker and an empty roster spot only to have the kicker get hurt and them be completely unable to complete any sort of kick. I am not spending my hard-earned bank roll on that kind of incompetence.
CHI +105 at IND-1 O/U 43.5
This is a total feel game, no huge trends pop out, no giant luck advantage, no huge money disparity, both quarterbacks who have been disappointing. That said, since Steichen took over the Colts he is 5-2 as a favorite so we’re going Colts and hoping Richardson has a bounce back.
Panthers +195 at LV-5 O/U 39.5
Just like the first two weeks, lots of stuff suggesting the Panthers might be the team to bet. 0-2 road teams cover at 60%, dogs after a blowout cover at 57%, underdog with a low total, etc. And this is week we’re going to do it. They’ve benched Bryce Young for Andy Dalton, and let’s hope the Raiders come back down to earth after beating Baltimore.
MIA +175 at SEA -4 O/U 41.5
The Seahawks have been one of the luckiest teams this year, 4th in the league while Miami is 21st. Obviously no Tua here and with the Dolphins starting Skylar Thompson, even with a rest advantage and with dogs coming off a blowout covering 57% of the time, we’re going with Seattle as Geno is 15-5 as a favorite.
Bal -1 at Dal -105 O/U 48.5
Both these teams are coming off a loss, and coincidentally both are some of the best in the league at covering after a loss at around 60% since 2019. We’ve got Dallas here as a home dog, and the whales are on Dallas as well with 59% of the money on only 34% of the bets. On the other hand, the Ravens are in the bottom 6 in the league in luck while Dallas is mid pack. Between that and the trend that 0-2 teams on the roads are traditionally undervalued, I am taking the Ravens.
DET -3 at AZ +130 O/U 51.5
I am bucking the home dog trend here and taking Detroit. In the last 3 seasons Detroit is almost 70% ATS coming off a loss, and Jared Goff has been the most profitable QB ATS, 44-25 since 2020. Between that and Detroit coming in as one of the unluckiest teams in the league this year, we’re on the Lions
SF-7 at LAR +280 O/U 44.5
All the trends say you should pick the Rams here as a home dog coming off a beat down against a divisional opponent. But they are also coming into this game mega beat up, and there are some concerning trends for the Rams against the 49ers. McVay and Stafford are 4-12 as underdogs, McVey is 5-10 ATS against SF, and SF is 6-1 in their last 7 NFC West road games, so we’re all over the 49ers.
Sunday Night:
KC-3.5 at ATL +155 O/U 46.5
First of all, this is the Sunday Night Primetime game, so give me the under. Despite feeling like an idiot every time I bet against Mahomes, we’re taking ATL here. Kirk Cousins hasn’t been as bad in primetime as you might think, he’s 5-6 ATS in his last 11, and 15-16 ATS in night games in his career. This combined with KC being the luckiest team in the league so far according the The Action Network and the Falcons being a home dog has us on Atlanta.
Monday Night:
JAX+200 at BUF-5 O/U 45.5
Buffalo has a huge rest advantage here playing Monday after a Thursday. That’s only happened 2 times in the first three weeks of the season since 2015 and both teams with the rest advantage whomped. That combined with the Jags being one of the worst teams in the league with a rest disadvantage since 2019, and the fact that of Allen’s 70 career wins, 50 of them have been by 7+ has us on the Bills. Plus the primetime under.
WAS+290 at CIN -7.5 O/U 47.5
Since 2019 Cincy is the best in the league in non-division games covering at 63% on 61 attempts. That being said, 7.5 is a lot of points for a team that is 0-2 on the year. Despite the Bengals being one of the least lucky teams of the season, I am going to play this on the ML with a couple other legs unless this line comes down to 6.5. And, do I even have to say it? PRRRRRRRRIMMME TIIIIIIMMMMMMEEEE UNDER!